Kioxia's Sold-Out Memory Forecast: Why AI-Induced Shortages Will Persist in 2026
By Satoshi Itamoto • 2026-01-21T23:00:21.249025
The current memory crunch, fueled by the relentless demand for AI computing power, has led to record profits for manufacturers of RAM and flash memory chips. However, this trend is expected to continue, with no significant relief in sight for 2026. According to Shunsuke Nakato, managing director of Kioxia's memory division, the company's manufacturing capacity is fully booked through the end of 2026, driving the market for both enterprise and consumer SSDs into a 'high-end and expensive phase.'
This development is largely driven by the AI-induced memory crunch, which has created a sense of urgency among companies to invest heavily in AI technologies to remain competitive. As Nakato noted, 'there is a sense of crisis that companies will be eliminated the moment they stop investing in AI, so they have no choice but to continue investing.' This cycle of investments will likely keep prices high for the foreseeable future, absent a significant shift in demand for generative AI data centers.
For everyday users, this could mean continued high prices for SSDs and RAM kits, making it more expensive to upgrade or purchase new devices. From an industry perspective, the prolonged shortage will likely favor larger companies with deeper pockets, allowing them to invest in AI technologies and maintain their competitive edge. This shift could reshape how businesses approach AI adoption, with a greater emphasis on strategic partnerships and investments in memory technologies.
The implications extend beyond the tech industry, as the high cost of memory could slow the adoption of AI technologies in various sectors, including healthcare, finance, and education. As the demand for AI computing power continues to grow, manufacturers will need to adapt and expand their production capacities to meet the increasing demand. Until then, the memory market will remain in a state of high demand and limited supply, driving prices up and limiting accessibility to these critical technologies.
In comparison to other manufacturers, Kioxia's sold-out forecast is not unique, as many companies are struggling to keep up with the surging demand for memory chips. However, the company's position as a leading manufacturer of flash memory chips makes its forecast particularly significant, highlighting the industry-wide challenges in meeting the growing demand for AI-driven technologies.
As the memory market continues to evolve, it will be crucial for companies to develop strategic plans to manage their memory needs, whether through investments in AI technologies or partnerships with manufacturers. For consumers, the best course of action may be to wait for potential price drops or to explore alternative storage solutions. Ultimately, the persistence of the memory shortage will require a multifaceted approach, involving both industry leaders and policymakers, to address the underlying issues driving this trend.
This development is largely driven by the AI-induced memory crunch, which has created a sense of urgency among companies to invest heavily in AI technologies to remain competitive. As Nakato noted, 'there is a sense of crisis that companies will be eliminated the moment they stop investing in AI, so they have no choice but to continue investing.' This cycle of investments will likely keep prices high for the foreseeable future, absent a significant shift in demand for generative AI data centers.
For everyday users, this could mean continued high prices for SSDs and RAM kits, making it more expensive to upgrade or purchase new devices. From an industry perspective, the prolonged shortage will likely favor larger companies with deeper pockets, allowing them to invest in AI technologies and maintain their competitive edge. This shift could reshape how businesses approach AI adoption, with a greater emphasis on strategic partnerships and investments in memory technologies.
The implications extend beyond the tech industry, as the high cost of memory could slow the adoption of AI technologies in various sectors, including healthcare, finance, and education. As the demand for AI computing power continues to grow, manufacturers will need to adapt and expand their production capacities to meet the increasing demand. Until then, the memory market will remain in a state of high demand and limited supply, driving prices up and limiting accessibility to these critical technologies.
In comparison to other manufacturers, Kioxia's sold-out forecast is not unique, as many companies are struggling to keep up with the surging demand for memory chips. However, the company's position as a leading manufacturer of flash memory chips makes its forecast particularly significant, highlighting the industry-wide challenges in meeting the growing demand for AI-driven technologies.
As the memory market continues to evolve, it will be crucial for companies to develop strategic plans to manage their memory needs, whether through investments in AI technologies or partnerships with manufacturers. For consumers, the best course of action may be to wait for potential price drops or to explore alternative storage solutions. Ultimately, the persistence of the memory shortage will require a multifaceted approach, involving both industry leaders and policymakers, to address the underlying issues driving this trend.